Ann: Investor Briefings & Webinar Notice, page-65

Some rough numbers on ALS market potential.
They seem to high .... can someone point out wher I have gone wrong ( typing this over breakfast ).
I hate taking a disease like this and turning it into $'s and profit, but it's a commercial world ... so let's have a crack



Of the 200,000 , roughly 35,000 are in the USA, and 5,000 are diagnosed in the USA each year.
At a cost of US$160K, treatment will not be available to global population of patients - guess 60% of diagnosed patients will have the opportunity to move onto MPL as standard of care.
Estimate 5% of these patients will have alternate treatments available which may cure rather than treat ALS, such as genetic therapies, stem cell etc.

So, a target global population of 114,000.
and a target US market of ~30,000

Current US Addressable Market : 30,000 patients * $160K = USD$4.8B per year

But then the efficacy of MPL kicks in.
Newly diagnosed cases remains the same per annum, but life expectancy extends by "x" amount, so patients on SoC (MPL ) increase over time.

If a patient goes onto MPL as SoC for current life expectancy would generate ~ 2 years x $160,000 = $320,000
Double this life expectancy, and provide a liquid formula to extend availability, value per patient = $640,000

Addressable market is USA becomes ~ USD $10B within 4 years of launch ( as patients live longer )
MPL, as SoC, should be able to achieve >50% market share ( being conservative ... I want to say >90% share ).

US Market value for MPL = USD $5B within 4 years of launch.

Global Value in 4 years ....
Is this right ?