LYC 2.06% $7.94 lynas rare earths limited

Ann: Date of Quarterly Report and Briefing, page-2

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  1. 999 Posts.
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    I want to get ahead of this so there are no unreasonable expectations.

    Through two months, we are at a similar revenue rate as Q3 (~AUD62m). Unless we had a big June (which isn't that unusual, but shouldn't be counted on), we are probably looking at Q4 revenue around AUD100m.

    FY24 revenue ~434m, NPAT <100m (prob 80-85m).

    Likely still a healthy cash position (~500+m), and likely loaded up significant on inventory: possibly total now of >1,000t NdPr, and ALL produced SEG H2FY24.

    I think the inventory build will continue into FY25, specially for SEG. As long as we have room for it (which we have), SEG inventory will build for heavy production at LAMP next year, plus for future USA operations.

    While the FY24 numbers doesn't look too impressive, we have built a base for a future cashcow. This later point makes me think the above numbers have been priced in into sp. I would say we have 1-2 more 'iffy' quarters (macro dependent), before reports start coming with upside surprises. That doesn't mean the SP will be stagnant - market looks ahead, plus there are still some outstanding catalysts I'm waiting on (such as renegotiated US contract, downstream alliance etc).

    DYOR

 
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