It's all been about the copper price, but even with currently prices they are generating net mine cashflow comfortably. They may just need to ease on the exploration spend momentarily and just focus on the Jericho expansion though.
I think if copper prices bottom out above $4 (previous resistance), that will show me that even with China's property market melting down, the supply/demand is supportive of higher prices which will make AIC's enterprise value of $100+million look very, very cheap.
Let's assume an AIC of $5.5AUD as per FY25 guidance (likely to reduce significantly when Jericho comes into production)
with current price of $4.25USD ($6.30AUD), we have a margin of $ ~$80c.
If we go back to $5USD the margin is $1.9AUD, so you can see why it's all about the copper price.
FY25 Current guidance of around 13kt of copper (~28mil oz of copper), 28mil * 80c = $22mil net mine cashflow, not bad for $100mil+ enterprise value
FY27 At the planned 20kt of copper in a couple years we would have $35mil net mine cashflow, not bad for a $100mil+ enterprise value
If copper prices bottom out and go back to $5USD then we are talking about a FY25/6 $53mil net mine cashflow
FY27 $83mil net mine cashflow, really not bad for $100mil+ enterprise value.At $83 million annual net mine cashflow I would expect shareprice to be at least 5x what it is now
Now do we think copper price will be closer to $4 or $5 in FY27? And beyond?
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