Hi there Sammy,
It seems to me there may be a few reasons that may at least partly explain it. I'm not putting these forward as definitive explanations, rather as thoughts and possibilities.
The first of these would be that as CFE increases in value, for all the reasons we're all aware of, the 20% of CFE he owns will be worth considerably more than 50m. If Sage achieves his target of a 1b return to shareholders, Timis' will have realised around 200m.
Timis and also go back decades. I feel the deal had elements of you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours. Sage was instrumental in fascilitating huge reverse take overs, that have allowed Timis to list his assets on the asx and he was unable to list them anywhere. Sage said at the time that Timis got a lot of grief from his shareholders for letting the asset go so cheaply.
Marampa, although being a brownfields project, was yet to have the drilling and development conducted by CFE since the purchase.
Just a few thoughts there, although it's interesting to note that Timis hasn't sold any of his shares. I haven't seen any notices to that effect.
As far as the sale price being sought, it seems about right to me. The resource is somewhat similar to the original Cape Lambert project, although fe prices are now north of what they were back then and CFE owning 33% of the Marampa infrastructure is a big plus.
For mine, the question is not why Marampa is worth 500m, but rather why Mayoko was sold for so much less. CFE doubled its money in no time, but I would have preferred to see the project further developed and sold for a lot more, notwithstanding they retain 25% of the project, receive $1 per tonne in royalties and won't have to fund the project further unless it's in exchange for increased euity. I guess CFE needed some cash flow.
Peter
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