You're right, it could be lots of other things and not a bull trap at all. I was just struck by the similarity between the "generalised bubble" graph and the last six months daily graph of DroneShield share price, and my post illustrates that similarity. We won't know for another 4-6 weeks. But recognising a bull trap looking back doesn't help you avoid it.
Bull trap is a risk, not a certainty.
The reason I pointed to the quarterly and half-yearly reports as possible triggers for sell-offs are:
Looking at announced orders, and estimating unannounced sales, I believe the next quarterly cash flow report will be under $20 million, and probably close to $15 million. I've seen some pretty wild estimates posted here for this quarterly, so it's quite possible there will be a lot of disappointment when the 4C is released.
If the quarterly comes in at, say $17 million, that means the half-yearly cash intake will be under $25 million.
The company announced an order book of around $70 million at the start of the year. If the company misses that revenue estimate, it's going to erode investor sentiment.
Looking again at announced sales of under $15 million, the company is nowhere near replenishing their order book. Investors looking for signs of continued growth may decide to reduce their holdings.
As always, it's up to you to decide how much to have invested in the company at any given time.
DRO Price at posting:
$1.96 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)