(not a) 5hareholder,
The missing part of your equation in the valuation of CTP is POTENTIAL.
The gap between the assets of a company and it's market valuation is the potential that shareholders place on their perceived projections for the company.
It's a simple idea - we, "the market" have, by setting a price per share above the asset valuation, perceive the company to have more worth than it's paper assets, a value which is the amount we are willing to pay for the potential of the company.
In other words, it's how much we, "the market", are prepared to pay in the expectation that CTP, a speculative company, will find and prove reserves and being selling those reserves.
On top of this, your (overly simplified) calculations don't include the value of mining rights - they are saleable, and some may well be sold by the company if necessary.
Your estimates of Surprise seem to assume there will be only one well. This is patently incorrect; Should Surprise flow, CTP has stated they would drill other wells in the area to tap into the oil kitchen.
- Karl
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