just play with some numbers... still missing ~70m usd (~60% from 118m, ~40% already paid) capex stage 1.
given:
production per annum: 5,367 tons
sales price per ton lce: if you use gs 11.000 usd per ton carbonate for 2025 72,3% payability = 7,953 usd/t but for the first 5y i got a 10% premium for
offtake pre payment: 50m usd
royalties: 7% (let's see what happens)
opex: 3,963 usd/t
sustaining capital: 1,475,000 usd/year
discount rate: 8%
tax rate: 35%
additional loan: ~13m
annual interest: 12%
exp. payback after: 8y
no additional capital raise needed.
in my models we assume that all options and performance shares retrieved - so a total soi of ~584m shares.
pe ratio 8.
no financial advise. always do your own research. still experimenting. this should under no circumstances be used as a basis for financial decisions! just a guy on your screen...
even with goldman sachs gloomy assumptions, this project can survive.
how i get to my margin of safety and what my limit is remains my secret. i can say so much that i also take country risk factors into account. probably every possible case can be modeled.
can choose different price models. like fastmarkets for example with 70m usd offtake/pre payment.
so if you assume 70m offtake/pre payment 10% premium on the sales price of study 1 for the production of the first 5 years.
no financial advice. i don't act on behalf of the company. this doesn't constitute a basis for risky financial decisions. always dyor. i hold a long position in this stock. numbers, entries or assumptions may be incorrect.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- GLN
- General Discussion Banter GLN
General Discussion Banter GLN, page-15554
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 238 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add GLN (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
13.5¢ |
Change
-0.010(6.90%) |
Mkt cap ! $68.40M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
15.0¢ | 15.3¢ | 13.5¢ | $629.7K | 4.381M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
22 | 704525 | 13.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
14.0¢ | 452853 | 6 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
22 | 704525 | 0.130 |
18 | 721164 | 0.125 |
15 | 1457132 | 0.120 |
17 | 1839380 | 0.115 |
13 | 975189 | 0.110 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.140 | 452853 | 6 |
0.145 | 310000 | 5 |
0.150 | 639259 | 6 |
0.155 | 335000 | 6 |
0.160 | 510000 | 5 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 27/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
GLN (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
SBW
SHEKEL BRAINWEIGH LTD
Dani Nadri, Country Manager Australia
Dani Nadri
Country Manager Australia
SPONSORED BY The Market Online