General Discussion Banter GLN, page-15554

just play with some numbers... still missing ~70m usd (~60% from 118m, ~40% already paid) capex stage 1.

given:
production per annum: 5,367 tons
sales price per ton lce: if you use gs 11.000 usd per ton carbonate for 2025 72,3% payability = 7,953 usd/t but for the first 5y i got a 10% premium for
offtake pre payment: 50m usd
royalties: 7% (let's see what happens)
opex: 3,963 usd/t
sustaining capital: 1,475,000 usd/year
discount rate: 8%
tax rate: 35%
additional loan: ~13m
annual interest: 12%
exp. payback after: 8y
no additional capital raise needed.
in my models we assume that all options and performance shares retrieved - so a total soi of ~584m shares.
pe ratio 8.

no financial advise. always do your own research. still experimenting. this should under no circumstances be used as a basis for financial decisions! just a guy on your screen...




even with goldman sachs gloomy assumptions, this project can survive.
how i get to my margin of safety and what my limit is remains my secret. i can say so much that i also take country risk factors into account. probably every possible case can be modeled.

can choose different price models. like fastmarkets for example with 70m usd offtake/pre payment.




so if you assume 70m offtake/pre payment 10% premium on the sales price of study 1 for the production of the first 5 years.




no financial advice. i don't act on behalf of the company. this doesn't constitute a basis for risky financial decisions. always dyor. i hold a long position in this stock. numbers, entries or assumptions may be incorrect.