Other factors at play here . I have not managed to get hold of the Piper report yet , but analyst Edward Tenthoff who previously issued some in depth research, has switched his previous recommendation from hold to overweight today with a dramatic change to his price target.
When biotech houses with credibility in the sector, like Pipers’, start to properly focus on MESO ,Mesoblast is really going to get interesting. I expect analyst coverage of the stock to expand in coming weeks and months, as the catalysts for a rerating become obvious. Seeking accelerated approval for end stage heart failure is going to really put the Company of the map. So many major pharmas have big cardiac franchises to support . Mesoblast is clearly close to a paradigm shift in treatment of ischemic heart therapy..potentially similar to the impact of Entresto and latterly the SGLT2 inhibitors on the treatment of the disease. Obviously further trials will be needed to capitalise on the opportunity …but in my opinion , the scale of the improvement in diabetic ischemics during the phase 3 Revascor trial, is at a level I have not previously come across in any Phase 3 cardiac trials using gold standard mortality or MACE endpoints. The primary endpoint for the Revascor Dream P3 trial was confounded by including hospitalisation days for additional diuretic therapy..but considering all the evidence gathered in clinical trial already Mesoblast thinks it can show continuum of mechanism of action worthy of approval. The submission of an accelerated approval application in approx 8-9 months for end stage CHF with (or without ?) LVAD device may send this rocketing. The LVAD market itself is less than a few thousand procedures a year , but the Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) market is 50 times larger for patients with similar etiology in some respects. Remember that CABG is a medical procedure to improve blood flow to the heart and more than half of LVADs have historically had ischemic cardiomyopathy as the etiology for thier condition.Then you have enormous potential beneficiaries for earlier stage CHF treatments off label post any approval for end stage patients ….and CLBP is potentially even bigger with a 7m patient population suffering form degenerative disc disease in the USA.
The next pre BLA meeting for CHF will be crucial for setting trial protocols and agreeing primary and secondary endpoints. Post the minutes being available from that meeting the market is going to have to acknowledge the scope of the potential opportunity for Mesoblast and arrive at a sensible risked appraisal of its value. We are just getting started. OP
Please do not rely on the facts and opinions expressed in the above post when making an investment decision.
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