I think it's still worth remembering that each stage of the pipeline is incremental on the previous one. So the $1.1b in the first stage is really $546m at the "least" certain stage, the remaining $554m is more advanced down the pipeline. Therefore the question is perhaps better to ask if you would still apply 10% conversion to the least certain $546m, or if it should be lower and then if you would apply a higher percentage to the slightly more certain $554m remaining. Also, if you are assuming 30% closed in 2024 for the first stage, can you assume a slightly higher likelihood of closing for prospects further down the pipeline? For instance you'd have a much higher likelihood of sales at the PO stage closing in 2024.
This could then be done at each stage of the pipeline.
Obviously the conversation and closed numbers at each stage would be speculation, but even a fairly conservative set of estimates comes in at well over $30m in 2024.If we use the numbers shown in the presentation (10%/25%/30%/40%/etc) and very conservative "closing in 2024" numbers it comes in at well over $100m in 2024.
The question then becomes, what level of sales are required to support the current MC ($1.08b)?
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