General Discussion AGY, page-23368

You've said some things here which are absolutely, unambiguously incorrect, and some which are, IMO, just outright clearly incorrect.

The 500TPA was always supposed to be 500TPA. Early on the plan was to use it to fund the 2,000TPA plant. It was never supposed to be a 50TPA plant.

We don't know exactly how different the 2,000TPA plant was in design to the 500TPA plant design, but we do know that progress stalled right at the same production rate, and after all the efforts they could possibly manage to tweak and improve it, the results were marginal, and I'm even dubious about that, since there was only one update where they reported any improvement in rate, and in that same period they said it wasn't running the whole time so the overall rate for the period was about the same, and then they abandoned it.

Whether or not it was a different design (I doubt it given the identical performance), it didn't provide any significant improvement or advance.

You say it's "common knowledge" that the 10,000TPA plant was going to consist of 5 x 2,000TPA modules. This is incorrect. There was some ambiguous/misleading wording given to shareholders which implied this, and after much speculation in the discussions here I asked JZ directly, and he told me unambiguously that it was going to be one single scaled up 10,000TPA plant, not 5 x 2,000TPA plants or 2x 5,000TPA plants etc.

Not that this matters now, I'd be thrilled if someone would take me up on a bet on the 10,000TPA plant never getting built, never getting funding. It's not happening, it's just not. Time to accept that.

If I was an investor, I may go with someone with a proven method, or perhaps a risky startup, but why would you choose AGY after they just burned ATL for $5M (IIRC they're contractually committed not to sell for over a year.... ouch! They just flat out lost about $5M) immediately before announcing they're abandoning everything. Why on Earth would anyone invest in AGY?

It's unfortunate for AGY holders that we've just seen two nasty red days on the ASX. Yesterday's announcement was always going to be all you needed to know to understand that this is sinking to almost nothing, but of course, the market as a whole and most individual holders require some time to process that and accept it. Nasty red days mean the price has dropped more quickly than it otherwise might have, giving you less time to come to the realisation and act. If today had been a fantastic green day on the market, it's even slightly possible AGY would have seen a dead cat bounce to sell into, but red days like today aren't so forgiving.

I can't categorically state it because it's against the Hot Copper rules, and probably technically illegal, but I can say I personally have no doubt that AGY has confirmed that it is never going to have a functional 10,000TPA plant, and investing in it now is a surefire way to lose your money. The sooner you sell, the better.