Ann: Rincon Lithium Project Update, page-405

Hey, Stevo,

Thanks for the message directed at me. Not sure why it was directed at me, but thanks for having me in mind.

This post will age like milk (though it will be at the tip rather than at the back of the fridge where it has a chance of being noticed after it is rotten).

You're making a common mistake, apparently 7 years hasn't been enough to avoid it. Here it is:

"I missed out on making millions of dollars on a speculative move years ago, so I believe that after this stock has crashed, it's going to do the same thing as that other opportunity I missed out on"

Unfortunately, this doesn't have any basis. A failed project is not the same as a speculative new project. It's not just as bad as saying "I put my money on 23 and the ball landed on 14, so next spin I'm putting all my money on 14" which would be the equivalent of investing in another unrelated startup story stock, it's so much worse than that.

Speculative story stocks, like AGY was some years ago, usually fail and occasionally make it big. They sometimes rally during the speculation phase, as AGY did. Five years ago, sure, AGY was a speculative, risky punt with a hopeful story and as far as we knew, potentially huge returns. I don't know how realistic management themselves considered the outlook to be, but of course they were always going to paint the prettiest possible picture.

The price may now be back to where it was, but it's not the same situation. Unlike all those years ago, we now know they weren't being open and honest, we know they weren't as optimistic as they said (perhaps they were before they failed with the 500TPA plant, but after then, they knew that carrot they were dangling was a fake or at best a very long shot). They were willing to rob ATL blind. They were willing to blatantly mislead shareholders about the 500TPA plant having "done its job". They never knew how to produce lithium, and from some point before the 500TPA plant was abandoned, they knew it. At some point between the 2,000TPA plant's progress stalling at the same point the 500TPA plant stalled at, and yesterday, it was our duty to ourselves to recognise it. They have structured the entire operation perfectly to make as much money as possible for themselves, given they knew the lithium operation itself was not going to be a success (this does not at all prevent them from making huge amounts of money for themselves and family on the payroll).

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

This is no longer a speculative venture, it's a failed venture. If continuing with AGY is the lesson you need, I hope you pay attention in class.