China (or rather Jiangxi Copper) would rather attempt to build a copper mine in Afghanistan than do so Ecuador. Afghanistan of all places where their employees are all but certain to get blown up on their way to work. And still they'd rather develop a mine there than Ecuador.
Why pay money for an asset in a country where the leader might well be just days away, and another Javier Milei? Where American pressure might force them to abandon any sale attempt to the Chinese? Even DRC in Africa is not immune to American pressure in this regard.
A country where the gunmen can appear on national TV and hold hostages with such ease, ship concentrate to a port that the government has zero control over. A port that is so easily cut off from China by American naval power.
With great power war all but inevitable now, China's no longer interested in assets halfway around the world that can be so easily lost. They only want copper assets as close to home as possible away from America's clutches.
Meantime they are stockpiling as much copper as they can get in the same way they are stockpiling gold because even though every one can see copper supply falling off a cliff in a few years, who else is actually doing anything about it to protect themselves.
Least of all the West which should have the greatest interest in developing Cascabel. But of course BHP is not really interested in solving the world's copper shortage. They are interested in making money for shareholders and they clearly believe it is far cheaper and safer to buy other people's existing producing assets than to try and develop anything of their own.
Why did Solgold do another deal that involved giving away so much future gold production, a financing that comes in the form of such parsimonious drip feeding with so many get out options for the financiers? Must have been because a myriad of banks and other financiers were queuing up to lend them a whole bunch of money to develop Cascabel.
The Solgold goose was cooked long ago. Years of mismanagement (sound familiar), poor decisions and infighting destroyed the value of Cascabel for shareholders. Can practically see Warren Irwin squirming in his seat when asked about Solgold. Modern day geopolitics / project execution risk have ensured that Cascabel has missed the boat until these issues are resolved and no resolution is in sight.
And all this while this company spent over $5m annually on administration and staff costs. Where's a roll-eye emoji when I need one?
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