We are talking here of future expectations ; not historical facts so IMO, my guesstimate is just as good as yours unless like SchMo that you have a hotline to Himself above!
One way or another, the Ukraine's chief 'sponsor" the USA will likely have a shift in foreign policy with the probability of addressing domestic economic issues not the least of which is accelerating US sovereign debt and higher bond interest rates to maintain it. (As Clinton said: "Its the economy stupid")
And it would be foolhardy to ignore US self interest, IMO.
