Russia Ukraine war

Originally posted by tangs: ↑

speaking of China ....russias freind without limmits .....that ctually DOES have limmits on the freindship ............has ,I believe , potentialy much to gain from this war .

They have russia over a barrel on OP , but have refused a second gas pipeline .....they don't wish to become dependant on Chinese gas and find themselves at some stage dependant on russia ......why not ,close freinds aren't they ????
I'll come back to that !*

The primary objective is to see the west defeated in Ukraine and a precedent set for China to invade Taiwn also ......has been a disappointment for China in that respect ......russia have underperformed and their weapons have underperformed ......this cautions against Chinese risk taking in Taiwan .

* A secondary objective I believe could well be for China to regain that territory in Manchuria that russia took from them a century and a half back .
This could only happen if russia was in turmoil and very weak ......everyone knows just how devious the Chinese can be and I wouldn't put it past them to encourage russia to fail economicaly and poilticialy so they can mop up that territory ......you can bet China hasn't forgotten !

One thing is for sure .....China will follow what they perceive as their own best interest and acheivable .....and sentiment won't be allowed to get in the way of that in the least part .

Expand

Re this war & China.

IMO China aims to be the Eastern Hegemon by 2049 (The 100th Anniversary of the CCP Revolution)

To achieve that , Russia sees the US as its chief impediment and for that reason
any US enemy is China's friend (including China) in the interim

In order to achieve China's 2049 goal, China needs global peace because within
that framework China has prospered to date.

IMO China won't make any further moves on Taiwan unless the US supports Taiwanese
independence and to date the US has avoided that.

True to its Marxist Leninist dogma, China believes that Economics over time trumps Ideology
and for a generation up to Xi it was perusing that path. Last week's 5 year review tweaked that, IMO.

At present the US is waging an economic war on China which is more likely than not to intensify
between now and 2030. Will that lure both into the Thucydides Trap?

According to Graham Allison there's a 75% chance of war and according to our Chinese expert
Kevin Rudd , a US/China war is avoidable.

No doubt both the USA & China are monitoring this war very closely both on the ground and
from space. China in particular will be collecting intelligence and info on NATO's (particularly US)
weapons and war intelligence/info systems and where possible acquire some of the latest
hardware for analysis/copying and of course the US will be doing its best to stymie that.

So the big question is: is this war an entree to a US China war or is it the gateway to Cold War 2
One way or another both sides are lining up their ducks (allies)

Recommended reading:

(Ordered this one...havn't read it yet
but this is the Subject of Rudd's recent Oxford PHD)