DroneShield Ltd. (DRO:ASX; DRSHF:OTC): Is It Time to Buy Again?, page-17

Just to be clear, there is nothing wrong with trying to figure out the why. It is more to do with: first identify a share that is a good long-term investment, then develop a strategy whereby whether it goes up or down, you still come out ahead.

Hence I am happy when a share goes up (it is a selling opportunity) and when it goes down (it is a buying opportunity). I just avoid issues such as 'do you think it has hit the bottom' or 'do you think it has peaked?'
A friend once coined the phrase 'red noise' which is a loose metaphor related to Brownian motion. The theory is that no matter the random movement of a share price (white noise) there remains a restoring 'force' which causes the share to also target toward the 'fair price'. In the case of blue-chip shares 'fair price is generally well-known by the application of accepted formulae. In the case of speculative shares the fair price is unknown. Therefore for blue-chip shares volatility trading opportunities are limited (and best applied when there is a crash). Volatility trading is far more appropriate for shares such as DRO - where people have a wide divergence of what is the fair-value. Anyone who has been following DRO would realise that for some people a 'fair price' is about $1.20 whereas for others the $2.50+ price is also 'fair'.

I am not specifically advocating this strategy - other than to say I have done well out of DRO by using it. But clearly if anyone can predict the bottoms and the peaks then they will have huge advantage. I just think this is not possible.