Why the shorters are going to win, page-36

This is a pretty good quarterly activities report and a 5B appendix. The expenditure/exploration constraint is evident in the numbers.

Let us assume that Palladium and Nickel do not increase by the end of CY 26, 30 months from this report.
At that time (at current expenditure rates), CHN will have less than $10 million of cash left and a pending 'final investment decision (FID).'
If their key resource prices have not recovered, and I would contend that it is impossible to predict Russia's activities in the case of palladium and Indonesia's in the case of nickel, the FID would almost certainly be negative. The project would be shelved, awaiting better metrics.

So, investing in CHN is simply a bet on PGE metal prices increasing substantially. There is no project if they stay the same.

I hold CHN and will continue to hold it as I view the 'bet' as a call option on the PGE group of metals. However, I am not kidding myself that these guys have a project that will fly under current circumstances.