“Updated feasibility would have helped define some costs, however has not been completed so as to not show the project is actually not economically viable without a premium lithium price - this price has been kept from us/we just don't know.”
Oh dear.
Where to start?
Are you aware that the company has provided an opex estimate for the expanded operation?
Are you aware that a DCF model can evaluate the effect of various cost and pricing scenarios, as well as determine minimum pricing levels required to meet a threshold IRR for various cost and production scenarios?
Are you aware that you can use a DCF model to examine the maximum costs that will deliver a threshold IRR for your own forecasts of product pricing?
The target has long shifted to +10ktpa operation. Read the announcements.
The 2ktpa plant was simply a stepping stone for further de-risking and continuity of process development.
The fact that the 2ktpa plant might not be economically-viable to ramp and produce in the near-term, considering market forecasts, is a shame, for sure, but not necessarily a dealbreaker at all for the bigger picture and longer-term.
You can assume that the 2ktpa plant remains shut down if you like, the relevant DCF analysis relates to the expanded operation, which was always the plan, and will be the basis of an updated feasibility study whenever that is completed.
DYOR everyone!
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