operations update and new appointments, page-9

IF J52 produces 365bopd, would you consider it a success or failure?

I mean $6mil expense, 70days drill, 90days testing, TPL processing, etc.

Its a much slower re-rating than many first anticipated. Made worse by the dilution.

For a company with 1.5bil shares, they will need a hell of alot more than 365bopd before anything significantly positive happens. And with relatively long and expensive drills, I cant see rapid expansion. And thats ignoring the history of long delays.

They are in a position where one failure, blowout, a duster or major rework will hurt more than with most companies. They have funds for J52 and could MAYBE scrape together enough for J51.

But if J51/J52 failed funds would be gone and a cr would destroy any future value. Not without significant risk IMO.

Im concerned that so much discretionary power lays with Kazakh autorities. The TPL was sold to investors as a certainty. Now it appears not so. The delay is concerning.

J52 can help JPR. It can better establish reserves. It will be a good pointer to flow rates in the Block. It will demonstrate that they can get things running on time and on budget.

Im hanging in until I know stimulated and stabilized flow rates from J50/J52. If they both come in at under 400bopd, then I will anticipate similar from future wells. I will most likely exit.

If J52 outperforms, I may hold LT.