I think some of these bad faiith downspammers need to finally take a look at the Frontier - Panasonic deal, which shows how eager strategics are to acquire spod offtake in Canada.
Keep in mind tthat FL's resource is second-rate compared to Adina, and they have high capital intensity per their PFS. With the Renard option, WR1 will have the lowest capital intensity in Canada, and likely even lower than some Brazilian developers (not SGML.)
Firstly, FL placed Panasonic at a ~70% premium to SP. Both parties agreed and dealt on the basis that market valuations are too low.
Secondly, Panasonic committed to providing debt financing for the entire first phase (500m USD for just 160ktpa SC production), according to FL's CEO.
So imo it seems highly unlikely that WR1 will need to entirely CR themselves into production. More probable there is (a) a buy-in premium for the strategic, (b) some cash for working capital, and (c) some debt-financing.
Secondly, some capex items like the road are likely to be subsidised by CMIF (federal) and the Quebec govt. In fact, because Winsome are working with Cree on this, CMIF would be able to provide up to 75% of required funds as a grant.
The Koreans and Japanese desperately want to reduce their battery manufacturer and OEM reliance upon the Chinese supply chain. I posted earlier something about the Korean govt fund which aims to provide 25bn USD over just five years to assist with this. There has been and imo will continue to be a geopolitical premium on M&A with the Japanese and Koreans.
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