Ann: Security Class Reinstatement to Quotation- OPTOB, page-47

@primaus72
Black-Scholes is Useless.
The problem with using the Black-Scholes model to price options is its heavy reliance on stock volatility. Given the binary nature of the Phase 3 trial readouts, the Black-Scholes model suggests an OPTOB option price of 0.02 cents for today (not 2 cents, but 2/100 of a cent).

However, common sense and today's market would suggest a much higher prices.


Monte Carlo Not Much Better
Event-driven Monte Carlo simulations are better suited for this kind of scenario. They indicate that the share price might hover around 50 cents, then jump to over $1 on successful Phase 3 ShORe results, and potentially reach $3 following successful Phase 3 COAST results.


Of course, in the case of failure, the share price of options and shares is expected drop close to zero, no argument from me on that risk.

The prediction models simulated with python or any model really, are only as good as the data input, involves just too much lot of guesswork. For instance, an option price expectation of 55.7 cents for OPTOB is projected just before the Phase 3 ShORe readout (expected in March 2025).

But honestly, this is just math based on estimates, with some assumptions generated by me from a place the sun doesnt shine.

Finally, these models don’t fully account for human speculative impulses, which can significantly impact actual market behavior.

So, I just sit around and think about it. If OPT was $1 would swap it for 2 50cents each OPTOB options? Yes I would if we had strong tail wind that share price was going to top $2, particularly if it was before Feb 2025.