The CR is by far the least risky way for FBR to raise money. If during the SAT a little hiccup happens FBR will be broke and a lot of confidence goes away. As you are well aware, FBR has been running on the smell of an oily rag for years. Each CR has provided funds only for a few months. The last really substantial ann was in January when a binding agreement was reached with CRH. Before that all we had were MOUs, and progress updates on upgraded versions of hx.
However, incredibly, that agreement did not move the SP. For years FBR had said they were planning to go to US. So on 17 may they announce an hx is on the way. Even that did not shift the SP. On 9 July we are told the hx arrived - and then the SP moved. Weird - the only thing that happened is that a machine crossed the ocean and the market cap of FBR nearly trebled. Maybe nobody believed that an actual hx was sent, and that it was all a conspiracy?
Now they are about to do a SAT (maybe they have already done it, and it's all secret - but we don't know - it is all speculation until the ASX announces it). If the SAT passes then the agreement with CRH will be progressed - but the main outcome for me is that it will create huge confidence in the capability of Hadrian and make many predictions made by the loyal aficionados possible. Surely that will move the SP.
If the SAT fails - well - that is the risk. What to do then? Maybe they can recover quickly - hence the CR will become useful, because it will be much harder to borrow money then. But if they can't recover then I am afraid we are all going down the gurgler. That's the risk. Bet as much as you are comfortable with.
Maybe my history is wrong - in which case please can someone correct it.
FBR Price at posting:
4.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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