Acadia, page-716

While it’s true that US sales of Skyclarys in Q2 are almost identical to US sales for Daybue in Q1, there are other factors that come into play here that probably explain the market’s relative disappointment with DayBue Q1 2024 sales.

1. At US$75.9m, DayBue Q1 sales came in slightly below the lower end of Acadia guidance of US$76-82m. My observation is that any result at low end of guidance or below is punished by the market.
2. Even more importantly, Q1 2024 sales of US$75.9m were well below Q4 2023 sales of US$87.1m. Sure, Acadia explained the reasons for that drop, but my observation is that the market cares little when companies explain the reasons for falling sales – it just punishes severely.
3. Unfortunately, the significant drop in Q on Q sales played straight into the narrative spun by the Culper Report in February that DayBue was a dud drug whose sales would peak at US$316m in 2024.
4. In addition to the ~US$76m revenue in Q2, Skyclarys has also brought in US$24.4m ROW revenue after European launch in March. It’s now 18 months since FDA approval and Acadia won’t even be filing for EU approval until next year.