1) Your models don't seem to have helped you very much.
2) Risk has very clearly increased astronomically. The 10,000TPA plant almost certainly isn't going to be built. Who do you expect to throw hundreds of millions of dollars building a larger version of something which has already failed twice? By the company's own reckoning, the plant which they already have isn't worth working on because it's not economical.
The 2,000TPA plant probably won't be worked on again. If they were anywhere near making a breakthrough they wouldn't have given up when they did. They weren't even proposing any new avenues of modifications. The filter cloths did very little. They weren't even saying if that was the only problem and they couldn't fix it or if there was something else. We know for sure they are nowhere near being able to make it work. Starting up again after shutting down is much more expensive and difficult than continuing to operate. Doing so now would be a very expensive way to disappoint the market.
Even if any of this happens, it will be very expensive and definitely require a CR which will seriously dilute holders. In the mean time, cash burn is slowly but surely reducing cash on hand.
You say the share price has gone "up by 8%" today. That's a funny way of saying it has only gone down 95% since early last year, or down 20% since a week ago, or more than 50% since a month ago. The phenomenon we're seeing today is known as a dead cat bounce. You've criticised me for using the term several times before, and I expect you will criticise me for saying it again when it bounces off 2.6c to around 3c, which won't be the last time.
Let's be honest, no one is looking at this freshly and saying it looks like a great investment. The buyers are people doubling down because they can't accept it's worth so much less than they paid, and they're able to buy multiples of their holding at a fraction of what they initially paid, which is psychologically very appealing to most humans.
Oh, and as for the question of whether gcar is a paid ramper/company associate, or on the other hand a private investor with a God complex, it's the latter. If he was a company associate, after years of non stop vicious abuse and unrealistic claims, someone from the company would have told him to tone it down. His unrealistic claims and attacking anyone who disagrees aren't restricted to AGY, he was acting like some sort of biological authority during the covid panic times for example (from what little I saw of that, we wasn't as wrong there as he has been about AGY). His unrealistic claims aren't restricted to supercars and engineering careers (multiple intended). Additionally, his emotional meltdown (and initial disappearance) in response to the shutdown are consistent with someone struggling to deal with a reality they can't accept which goes against beliefs they are psychologically unable to let go of, rather than someone who was informed and had time to prepare.
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