Ann: FY24 Preliminary Unaudited Results & FY25 Outlook, page-52

It is hard because the popular PE only works with established companies with stable earnings. For AD8,it is just starting to have enough scale to make a profit with an EBITDA increased over 80% compared to last year, the PE would be huge. investors are willing to pay the high price becaase they based their fair price on guesstimates of the foreward PE for the next 3-5 years. If its EBITDA increases over 80% every year like this year, the current price would be very cheap.

Unfortunately the company said there will be no growth next year, and we have seen the market massacre.

My suspicious mind is saying something does not smell right.

I looked at the so called head winds that will shrink revenue and profit and they are not much more than your run-of-the-mill business risks. Nothing that good (or even mediocre) managers cannot handle. If the software price is lower than the hardware, then push more software to the price-sensitive customers. And they conveniently ignored to tell you that the software price is recurring every year where hardware is once-off. That is definitely not a head wind that cannot be shifted to a tail wind by the clever manager.

The re-balancing of inventory and raw material etc. is everyday events and should not even be mentioned as a head wind.

Retirement of Viper and MY16 products are even more stupid excuse for a head wind. They were plan to become obsolete and replaced by newer products. Unless they are saying there are no replacement products and our customers will be hanging dry when the products are retired.

So management put in a shithouse forecast for next year a day after the world markets collapsed. It seems they are on a mission to push the share price down (to $6.50?).

But why? Somebody wants to buy big at dirt cheap price?