Ann: ACW XanaCIDD depression trial results expected early August, page-105

Thanks for posting @butcherano.

This is a really well written and concise appraise of Actinogen and their leading candidate Xanamem. It's interesting, given Dr Gourlay's track record of success with Principia, then Actinogen's recent announcement of the correlation b/w those with elevated pTau levels and Xanamem's impact in improving cognition and working memory, that there has not been significantly more interest in Actinogen. Dr Dana Hilts reputation in the field of neurology precedes itself in the US and the AD market size is forecast to double in years to come, therefore it's somewhat surprising the stock is hovering at a MC of $200m AUD. Particularly when recent sales for drugs in this space have been huge, as noted in the article above, where Karuna's 14bn USD sale is highlighted.

So what's the catch?

Well nothing really. It's simply about going through the motions, delivering on interim results by meeting primary endpoints in first the depression, then the AD trial, and allowing the results to create the awareness required to engender third party (i.e.,BP) support.

There's a few pieces of the puzzle to go yet, and nothing is guaranteed, but if a plus b does = c and Xanamem does produce the necessary reduction in Cortisol required to improve cognition and working memory, hence halting the progression of AD in our ever ageing population, then the oral pill could well stand to earn peak sales of close to $5bn USD, as hypothesized by Edison in the aforementioned article. Now at 4 times peak sales that would bring Xanamem in at a value of close to $20bn USD (excluding depression, schizophrenia and other neuro markets). Wow, thats about what $11.38 per ACW share is it not? Not bad for a small Aussie biotech. Now that would be Gold.

But I guess we might have to wait til the next Olympics to see if Dr's Gourlay, Hilt and the erstwhile team of professionals at Actinogen can win that medal.

In the meantime lets see how they perform in the heat this week.


DYOR Opinions Only