Care to share your calculations for your comment 'massively overvalued based on the current numbers'. Here are my thoughts but keen to hear the counter.
The current numbers show we're between a 11/12 PE with the cash removed. Forward PE (estimated) will be higher, but it is very reasonable even with a modest growth assumption. Daybue is only sold in the US, soon to be Canada so the RoW will come online in the coming years even if NA sales flatten out in the next 12-18 months. We get the benefit of sales milestones (which the 250m looks like it will still be hit comfortably) so the slight reduction of royalties is more damaging to sentiment than it is to a valuation model.
Now NNZ-2591 we've had 2 positives (maybe 3 come Friday) and even with a huge discount/risk rate applied the NPV of these indications adds an additional 500m-1b which is not included in the market cap at all. The more indications, or closer to P3 and NDA the lessen the discount rate will be where multiple indications could net 5-10b USD of annual sales, so adding a 500m~ value as of today is pretty conservative with the results to date in humans and the incredible animal models showing normalisation of disease state.
Edit: HC removed who I was replying to 'pastperformer'
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