Target $18.72, page-9971

FMG have nearly gone broke twice, back in 2012 they were a high cost producer and some will remember them pushing for a government led iron ore price inquiry back in 2016. So I wouldn't call them "solid" over the journey given analysis needs to look at nebt debt and outlook not just accounting earnings. FMGs earnings growth in recent years has been volume driven as well as price - the iron ore price is clearly going to come off through time as will FMG's sales given they are a lower quality producer that will be supplying into a world more focused on decarbonisation.

LTR illustrates the earnings problem beautifully, share prices are based on current balance sheet net position plus expectations (not speculation as you suggest). Accounting earnings can be and are gamed.

Some people like trading, some people prefer technicals to analysis, some growth to value. All approaches are valid.

The danger is trading (assuming you are long) is of course missing out on a rapid re-rating. A lot of people missed the chance to buy-in WHC for below $2 even after thermal coal prices had gapped upwards.

I bought in 2016 at 44c and then again last year on the acquisition of the BHP assets in the mid $7. As a value investor I'm equally happy with both purchases, to me they both look cheap compared to likely value.