Ann: Security Class Reinstatement to Quotation- OPTOB, page-105

Pretty sure my analysis ended up being the forum equivalent of a shoulder shrug: "Don't know." Take your pick—quantitative justification or statistical manipulation, nothing looks correct.

However, my opinion is that OPT shares, and OPTOB in particular, have been mispriced based on risk-adjusted value. Of course, I don't have, "we" don't have all the info, so I have to think there’s more to the risk of P3 failure and approval than "we" know.

A 70:30 probability seems about right, even 50:50, and the numbers are still strongly in favor of purchase.



Above is Black Scholes based on $100k invest with 10% to 100% chance of P3 readout success leading to $1.50, $2.20 or $3.20 share prices. So even a 30% chance or above of success suggest we should be buying. Common sense suggests otherwise with 50:50-coin flip odds is or starting point.