Is Avalon dead?
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Yes another week where sellers were in control. From a weekly perspective, a drop from 4.1 to 3.5. Volume decreasing now.
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So what is happening? The play, and I am speculating, is that Avalon may not be a saviour. This is just based on looking at trading pattern. We have had a drop of over 80% from our recent top. This sort of play may be an indication that something may not be right. Let's hope it's not that way.
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So in this doom and gloom, is there anything positive? Last couple of days, a very good indication of bottoming. Especially today. Most sellers are drying up. And not surprising, it's dropped so much. Risk reward from this point has got much better now. How much it can fall more, to how much we can gain. But that's just my thought, anything can happen, so please dyor.
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Personally I bought a few at 3.5. I wasn't convinced, but played due to risk reward. For those reading my posts, I had repeatly written that my last 3 plays were very good. I was apprehensive, just on probability, that I can't win all the time and chances of my failing is high, again just on probability. It played out as I was fearing. My only solace I sold one third at break even, one third on 9.1, slight loss. I should have got out all. But a much smaller play for me. And many times one third play works for me. This time it didn't
My average, factoring in a small loss of sell at 9.1,is now 6. So let's see.
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So what may happen next week? If we can hold this level for some more time, chances are we may not drop much more on technicals or fundamentals. If something good happens, that may drive the next rise. Unfortunately the spec side of play is worst I have seen for ages. Ravgnome does daily wrap on day thread in evening. Yesterday 6 stocks did 52 week high, and 89 did 52 week lows. It's very bad across the board. But our fortune is with some results. Let's hope we get a good one. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.
