Arafura Rare Earths Ltd, page-1012

To be fair, you are ignoring the strategic situation occuring. A one dimensional view solely on current RE prices. There is a lot more to it.

China RE prices are low for a reason, to snuff out competition vs a ROW that competes largely as free enterprise. This is to maintain heir monopoly (80-90%) and ability to weaponise RE (see Japan and Lynas).
> Note they are producing below cost and won't maintain that.

There is a reason the Australian Federal Government (and Gina Reinhardt) are backing Arafura. The Govt with $840M in finance.

So yes RE price is in play (current and forecast), but so is supply security, national security, clean production requirements of customers, and forecast deficit.

It wasn't so long ago that NdPr prices were $150kg and even $300kg at one point. Given the climate, it could very easily get there again. All the ingredients are there (won't rehash them as anyone who follows this knows).

It certainly feels a bit like be greedy when others are fearmongering. It's easy for a bear to be arrogant when prices are low. Let's revisit in 3 years time. That's when it counts for Arafura, and I feel you are not being strategic at all in your assessment. Making money in the market is about the future, not the now.

Something to ponder:
Nearly always when the arrogants come out with rockets is when it's the best time to sell.
Nearly always when the arrogants come out in a crashing environment is when it's the best time to buy.