Neuren Media and Analyst Coverage, page-1290

1) Changes relating to DAYBUE Commercialisation
■ Updated the timing expectations for penetration and persistency in the US and ROW
■ Updated the price expectations benchmarked to management commentary
■ Updated timing and ramp gradient of trofinetide launch in ROW
2) Changes relating to NNZ-2591
■ Increased probability of success (Phase 2) for Angelman syndrome to 100%
■ Increased probability of success (Phase 3) for Angelman syndrome to 65%
■ Increased overall probability of ACAD receiving NDAs for NNZ-2591 in Rett syndrome and Fragile X syndrome to 22% each
■ Pushed back the potential launch of PMS to CY 2027
We also note that NEU has paid A$34M in income tax (out of a A$46M Liability) in Q2 2024 and had A$213M in cash and short-term
investments as at 30-June-2024.
The net effect of these changes is a reduction in our valuation of NEU from A$25/share to A$22.50/share. We note upside risk from:
the positive trend in the DAYBUE US commercialisation metrics (we conservatively sit at the bottom of current ACAD guidance); the
progress in ACAD's ROW launch preparations for trofinetide; the consistent (albeit open label) NNZ-2591 results — supporting further
development; and the possibility for corporate activity. We maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation.