Being in a TH I decided to take a day off because I thought it would be a quiet day.
How wrong I was as the terms of the CR have been leaked and the MEO forum has been a hive of activity. I started reading through the posts but gave up when my head started buzzing too.
Until the whole content of the release is known, with all the facts, I am loath to comment but on the CR alone, as posted by Tevez, but, as a LT investor, I will make the following observations.- The CR, if it is at 52c, is a little disappointing, but management must have made their decision based on sound reasoning. Perhaps there is an investment in the offing (just my thoughts) which will offset any failure at A#1.
- The CR will net us ~$31.2m. This will bring our capital assets to >$100m or ~19cps. I am quite happy with that, especially with a mangement who gets value for their dollar.
- We have been manipulated for more than 12 months now and we all know the swings of up to 10% that have hit us a number of times. The value of the CR compared to today's SP is about the same. Who knows where the manipulators were about to take us after the -ve lead from Wall St and the BESB. There was still the gap at 51c to contend with.
- There seems to be more of an outcry whenever there is a CR, compared to the devastation to the SP by algorithms/manipulators. Trading is part of the share market scene which, unfortunately, is now on an uneven playing field. The SP of many companies are manipulated but the CEO's of emerging companies have to work with the debris left behind.
- MEO's management are employed by us to run the company which is owned by its SHs. Whatever they do is to maintain sustainability of the company for the owners. They cannot help what happens to the SP especially in today,s climate. The SP of any company will only rise if the company gets stronger. They can only do this by developing a visionary business plan and sticking to it with sound work ethics and making the hard decisions which are sometimes unpopular in the short term. Needless to say the O&G industry is expensive and CRs are necessary. The object is to raise money at times of strength which is where we are ATM.
- During the AGM presentation the CEO said that their aim was to provide shareholder value. Last year they had to run a CR @ 45c to cover the cost of A#1 so they could confirm the drill drop and stay as operator of 360-P. So really they had no spare cash in the bank. Even 70m for an ambitious O&G Co is peanuts - probably the cost of almost 1 well in Bonaparte.
- We have had people in this forum laughing at the ambitious TSMP and TSLNG and telling us that MEO is a nothing company. But all large companies have risen from grass roots and to do this you need the Ps that have been pointed out in the posts above. To gain the confidence of potential partners, the company has to gain some credibility after the GFC etc and need to increase their cash/material asset backing. MEO is building up the cash and Artemis and Heron may give us additional assets.
- Admittedly SIs could purchase their shares on market but this would not give us any cash value.
- The timing of the CR is important, especially if A#1 does not produce the goods. There is no point in missing the boat. If the SP was higher then there would be more funds realised from the CR but we have to make do.
- If Artemis is good to us then the SP should go up anyway. We will not get any income from her for some time apart from the 31.5m bonus and two free wells (less 5%). Further CRs will be possible - maybe even a lucrative rights issue - but ATM there has to be a balancing act.
- For those complaining about the 52c price of the CR then lets look at this another way. There was a CR for 45c last year. There was a lot of crying then about how we were all missing out. Since then we have had from the 27 Nov 2009 to the 30 Sept 2010 to buy below the 45c price.
- If we look at the 52c CR price today we have had from 18 Nov 2009 - 4 Nov 2010 to buy in sub 52c. The fundamentals did not change over that time but even improved. There have also been a lot of swings over that time to enable us to average down. I have spoken about this often.
- Even for those of us who have held most of our investment during that, time I am sure a small set back now is nothing compared to the period we were hitting our heads sub 30c for three months this year, especially when the upside is a strengthening of the company's position.
- For ST holders it is unfortunate that the TH is around the spud but I think, with good trading skills, you would have made a lot of money out of MEO too over the last year or so. I don't think you will have finished trading yet, either, with the potential increase in interest in MEO over the coming months. I am sure you will play this CR for what it is worth too.
- It is probably a bonus to MEOmites to have prior knowledge of the terms of the CR before the TH is lifted. The reason I say this is that very often there is not enough time to read the content of a release in the 20min time frame before open. Trying to read the release and keep an eye on the market often leads to panic especially if there is a dump/shakeout happening so at least we have had a day to discuss the finer points and plan a strategy if we feel it is necessary.
- I still believe in the fundamentals of the company and this CR will not alter them much but, rather, may well enhance them. I certainly won't be selling any of my shares on open as the SP will gap down but will quickly rebound IMO. Watch out for the sharks and don't get caught out.
- My main focus is on the SV and watching the progress of the drilling efforts. In the mean time I have confidence in the management to look after my investment dollar.
Of course, I am always alert to any changes.
But this is only my opinion.
#:>))
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