NIC - General discussion, page-995

Yeah the silence on dividend is starting to get deafening. Given the silence it would surprise me if they decide against it and in favour of a buy-back.

I don't believe they would remove the dividend without having put into action their share buy back scheme. For three four reasons:
1. That would directly contradict Justin's recent comments about returning cash to shareholders.
2. Removing the dividend without action on the buyback would be a recipe for a SP slide. The optics don't look good even if it makes financial sense.
3. Removing the dividend and spending the money on buybacks is a more useful use of capital IF management believes the current price is significantly below fair value.
4. Without franking credits the rationale for a dividend over a buy back becomes less strong. They might actually come out with a statement regarding choosing buy-backs over dividends.


I'll also note that everyday this week at market close has had significant buy volume of between 0.5mil and 1mil shares. It wouldn't surprise me if this is the buy back in action. Meanwhile the short have been busy again.... Read into that what you will.

For what it is worth I bought up more last week. I'm still heavily NIC exposed, buy I have faith.