The difference is that competent shorters do their homework. In my years of investing I find that they are generally right with their investments and as I previously mentioned shouldn’t be ignored if one wants to preserve capital.
I work in the Auto industry and specifically for an EV start up but did transition from a job working at a global OEM (for 18 years) who manufactured ICE vehicles. During the last couple of years at the Global OEM, all investment in ICE engines stopped and there was a heavy focus on EV development.
Four years later, I see that these major OEMs are now back heavily investing in new ICE technology. When these types of investments are made and a new engine is developed, the production life is 10 years plus to ensure a return on investment. The shorters see this detail and start to realise that the 2030 transition targets are now 2040 targets. With that comes a reduction in demand for lithium.
Further, the production targets set by these EV start ups are no where near being achieved. In fact, one company based in the Asia pacific region is not even selling 10% of what they had anticipated to sell in 2025.
Need I add anymore?
GM, Ford, Mercedes all cutting EV production
Lordstown Motors dead
Fisker Dead
Faraday Future almost dead
Arrival Dead
Apple killed their project
Hi Phi Dead
Canoo losing a heap of money
The list goes on and on
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