Well the thing is think about is that Shell were able to flow 1.3mmscf sustained from their well in this play a while ago without fraccing. Therefore assuming we can expect similar results, we could add on that 1.3 to our already 2.1 to 2.5...but we also have other zones to add, plus a new fraccing program on top to stimulate.
If we can get an increase over the 1.3 that Shell were able to achieve, say we get a 25 to 50% improvement..that gets us about 1.5 to 2 mmscf of added flows. We are nearing 5mmscf with correct production completion of the well.
The other wildcard we have is these saturated coals containing 30m3/t of methane. I can easily see us in a successful scenario being able to exceed a sustained combined flow at Grandis of 5MMSCF. That is double the rate required for a commercial gas project. Well clear for development.
Issues which may arise are mechanical well failures or a total failure of the fracture stimulation. That seems unlikely given we have had a good flow rate now so a failure outcome for fraccing the rest would be an absolute disaster program over 5 zones. I mean it could definitely happen but what a disaster that would be...considering some of those zones have already been proven to flow before by Shell...
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