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$15.27 neuren pharmaceuticals limited

Neuren Media and Analyst Coverage, page-1304

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htae39

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16/08/24

15:30

Post #: 75241592
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Originally posted by hottod: ↑

Acadia also attended the Cannacord Genuity Conference this week, with CEO Steve Davis taking part in a Q & A on Wednesday. Audio of the interview is available on the Acadia website.

The interviewer first asked Steve Davis why he thought patient starts for DayBue were slow in the last quarter. Steve Davis attributed the “slower than expected” patient starts to the transitioning from recruitment at Centres of Excellence to high volume institutions and community centres.

The next question related to Acadia’s plans for the 70% of the diagnosed US Rett patient population still to try DayBue. Steve Davis said that there were now >700 prescribing physicians and they had reached ~50% penetration in the Centres of Excellence.
Increasingly, new patients are coming from high volume institutions and community centres. He said that while Acadia is achieving good traction there, it’s just a slower process. He also said that, in terms of the current level of penetration, the Company remained significantly ahead of its pre-launch projections.

The interviewer then asked about expected growth in DayBue sales to the end of this year. Davis said they were currently tracking slightly below the midpoint of the guided range but see slightly above the midpoint of the guided range through to the end of this year. He expects Q on Q growth to continue and the discontinuation rate to moderate. The rate of discontinuation in Q2 was ~40% down on the previous quarter. There have also been some patient restarts. Persistence continues to track ~10% over the rate seen in Lilac; consequently the Company is expecting the enduring patient population to be 50% or above.

Finally, the interviewer asked Davis how he views the current landscape for buyers of rare disease assets. An animated Davis answered that the biggest competitor for Acadia in acquiring rare disease assets has been “you” – the investment community which has provided funding for rare disease assets. He said that this trend had moderated somewhat in the last couple of years, leading to a more favourable business development environment. In his view, Acadia is now in a “very strong position” with two commercialized assets “at a billion dollar run rate.” In short, Davis said he views the current environment for acquisition of rare disease assets to be “pretty ideal” for Acadia.

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Do you think it is possible that Acadia would make a play for Neuren? It would make strategic sense but funding the deal would be an issue, I think.

What does help Acadia is that they have kept a premium over Neuren and perhaps a scrip and cash deal would be possible given the valuation gap that has widened over the last month, or so.

NEU Price at posting: $15.31 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last $15.27		Change 0.920(6.41%)		Mkt cap ! $1.951B

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Neuren Media and Analyst Coverage, page-1304

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