Ann: FY24 Financial Results Webcast Details, page-12

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LambDownUnder

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16/08/24

16:32

Post #: 75242841
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Originally posted by Exised: ↑

Good question and honestly it is hard to say. I'm going by my spreadsheets here and the last time NST and EVN roughly had the same PE was during the gold mining sector Wipeout of July 2022. The Gold price broke key support level set March 2021. Production woes on all miners not just gold miners due to the lack of workers, supply chain and equipment constraints etc... nasty period.

In a race to the bottom the NST SP hit a bottom at $6.60 while EVN hit $2.26 20/07/2022. It is around this time where their PE was roughly similar. Unfortunately for EVN the SP continued downward to $1.805 by 20/10/2022 while NST SP was well into recovery at $7.77 on that date. NST have held onto that premium ever since.

Similar to a race to the bottom, in a race to the top we will see similar conditions i.e. market overshooting valuations short term. In that case the NST and EVN PE will become roughly similar again and the pattern set the last few days have been for EVN to overshoot NST PE like it did during the 2022 downside. Looking at the EVN SP strength at present.

LT I believe the underlying pattern of NST having a premium will remain. Driven by better assets, more ounces and overall market preference for consistent short term swashbuckling profitability headlines. Not that EVN is a slouch, there is a reason why both are cornerstone gold miners in the portfolio since 2014. I find both to have their own merits and are well and truly investment grade companies.

After all these years, I have not been able to discern which one I like best. If we boil them down to their essence, NST is clearly on an unashamed thirst for growth in ounces and hence earnings. While EVN is on growth in earnings via a mantra of margins over ounces. Both tact will get you there long term. EVN will be the clear winner in preserving LOM longer term while NST will win in converting those ounces in dollars ASAP. In a short term minded market I know where the premium will go first. It will always be the money now that wins over the more money long term.

Hope that helps answering your question...

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thanks for the response. insightful history as always.

agree though, both are solid and there needn't be a choice to pick one or the other

NST Price at posting: $14.20 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $15.07		Change -0.150(0.99%)		Mkt cap ! $17.31B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$15.21	$15.31	$15.00	$55.08M	3.647M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	7111	$15.06

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$15.07	19451	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	5615	15.060
1	160	15.050
1	3743	15.040
1	3744	15.020
1	10968	15.010

Price($)	Vol.	No.
15.070	19451	3
15.080	14907	2
15.090	29073	2
15.100	35848	5
15.110	29056	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 28/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

NST (ASX) Chart

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