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Zep11

683 Posts.

110

17/08/24

12:24

Post #: 75250409
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Originally posted by triage: ↑

Nice sentiment but yeah nah.

For the sake of argument let's say that Latin's Salinas project and Winsome's Adina project are similar. That's not an outrageous assumption as Salinas has an MRE of 78mt @ 1.24% and Adina's MRE is 78mt @ 1.15%.

Assuming it is like for like then my hunch is that if on next Monday Pilbara lobbed a bid in for Winsome at the same premium they are offering Latin shareholders - say about a 60% premium - and so putting a value of each WR1 share at about 90 cents in exchange for PLS shares, a fair chunk of the WR1 registry would give serious thought to the proposal. Sure, everyone knows that if everything goes to plan Winsome will be worth multiples of 90 cents a pop. But a bird in the hand is better than two in the scrub. And the lithium market, and Winsome in particular, has been a tumble dryer for investors for such a long long time.

But okay I accept a lot of welded-on Winsome holders might decide to persevere - how much worse can it get right? And we all know that WR1 has been above two bucks in the past. But what about if next Monday morning Pilbara comes out and offers the same price for Winsome as they have for Latin: $500m all in PLS shares? Same MRE, same price. That's about $2.30 for each WR1 share. Sorry, Zepster mate, but if Pilbara offered Winsome shareholders $2.30 it would be all over red rover.

At the right price, everything is for sale.

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Interesting scenario, there'd be only one way to find out what would happen.

If it did happen, there'd be plenty of disappointed long term holders like myself who'd prefer the flock in the bush over the fledgling in hand.

WR1 Price at posting: 56.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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