In the interim results, 43 % and 29 % did not sound great in investors' minds (?), so we are at a lower price level than before these results. Only 3 of 7 improved in their subjective rating scale and only 2 of 7 were stabilized according to the physician's examination. However, Stamler and Claassen were happy with these numbers. The normal worsening of these scores had been stopped in some treated patients.
According to the 434 animal study, motoric improvement became significant ( p < 0.05) only after 6 months of treatment ( Heras-Garvin et al 2021). At that time some animals had not responded yet as well as most of them—the process of how 434 works is long and complex. First iron content needs to be reduced, and then alpha-synuclein partly eliminated before any regeneration of nerves can happen. Regeneration itself is complex and needs growth factors produced, etc. This takes time even in small animals. This is a reason the length of the 201 study was increased to 1y from 7 months.
So, it looks that in 6 months there is some regeneration of motoric nerves demonstrated by improved subjective and objective ratings. But IMO improvement may well continue after 6 months. I would not be surprised after 12 months to get 43% to improve to 60% and 29% to 50%. At this level, ATH434 would be a valid treatment in those patients with symptoms for over 4 years ( a deadly disease). Let us wait to see if these numbers will improve when we get a few more 1 y results. Unfortunately when 3 cases at 6 months are missing these numbers 43% and 29 % may even get lower unless 2 of them improve.
6-month results are only an early sign of a possible positive effect by 434. That is what we have now, and even that only partially. However, 12-month results are needed, as was eventually decided by ATH.
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