EBITDA in US was slightly better than expected, UK bang on as expected, ANZ as expected but Asia was much lower than I expected which is why the company missed my estimated EBTIDA of ~$206m.
I had already assumed FY25 will be flat on FY24 due to UK contract no longer being a contributor so this doesn't come as a surprise. I did think it would be flat to slightly positive but it looks like even if the forecast is correct, FY25 earnings will be below FY24. I think what's important is to see whether they can drive revenue growth for all regions except UK and demonstrate operating leverage for these regions. They have already made progress on EBITDA ratio so I expect this will continue.
I think it's safe to assume ~0.56 cents EPS for FY25. From this there should be no further reductions in EPS. Even for a low single digit growth company, a PE of 18 is good value so I expect the base SP to be around $10 and max around $17 (based on PE 30).
CTD Price at posting:
$11.57 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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