“I'm happy to remain patient in the red, even if others would try have you believe the sky is falling down.”
Yeah I find it quite funny actually how some are so pessimistic and negative, and take every opportunity to bash the company, its personnel, its progress, decisions, strategy, supporters, etc etc.
Fortunately for the rest of us, their emotionally-driven pessimism-bias doesn’t change the facts.
Since AGY set out to develop Rincon, via the Puna Mining JV, it has become clear that the transition to electrified mobility is indeed a reality, and following the pattern of disruptive growth.
Anyone (and there were many!) denying that this would happen has been put in their place by the cold hard facts of EV adoption and growth:
Back in 2017, this is where AGY was:
Mid 2017:
- <$4M cash
- includes circa $3.2M raised via recent placement and spp at 7.3c
- MRE: yet to be established
- tenements: 1289 ha
- no permits for onsite plant operations (targeting a 1000-1500 tpa plant at that time)
- industrial-scale pilot plant (off site) yet to be constructed, warehouse site secured
- no carbonate produced
- 1.25 ha ponds constructed
- Li2CO3 FOB SA circa $12k/t iirc
- AGY sp: circa 8c
- AGY market cap: circa $60M
- next key steps: construction of off-site industrial-scale pilot plant; process brine, demonstrate process via Li2CO3 production
Where is AGY in mid 2024?
Mid 2024:
- circa $12M cash
- strategic investment by ATL: USD$5M
- MRE: 687kt, indicating potential for 12ktpa for 42 years production, or 24ktpa for 22 years
- tenements: 8606 ha (pending formal granting of 5813 ha)
- expansion permits granted for for 12ktpa operations
- 2ktpa plant built and largely commissioned, market conditions drive pause of refinement and ramp-up
- circa 80t of carbonate stockpiled, produced from 2ktpa plant commissioning works
- 20t of carb from 2ktpa plant sold to Korean customer; also, ATL is performing product testing and qualification
- circa 58 ha of operational evaporation ponds
- Li2CO3 CIF North Asia: circa $12k/t-$13k/t
- AGY sp: circa 4c
- AGY market cap: circa $60M
- next key steps: complete engineering to get 10ktpa expansion to construction-ready status; secure funding to commence construction of 10ktpa expansion
What do we see?
- Market caps are similar
- Product pricing is similar
- Tenements increased and resource now defined, indicating potential for 24ktpa for 22 years
- Permits now granted
- Over 100t of BG carbonate produced, proving technical viability of process flow sheet
- External parties have tested and verified product quality
- Project has been de-risked, significantly, effectively moving from:
“We expect to have an adequate resource and expect to be able to develop a processing solution to produce BG carbonate”
to:
“We have an adequate resource to support a considerable operation, we have developed and demonstrated a processing solution to produce BG carbonate, and we have produced over 100 tonnes of product via our pilot plant and larger on-site starter plant.”
Where were the current haters back in 2017 carrying on with their doom and gloom narrative?
Nowhere. They came later, chasing shiny things, and threw their veggies on the floor after the price went up over 20 bags and then reversed.
They lost money on a junior when it whipsawed - in both directions - more than the big dog companies that indeed followed the same general market waves.
Cry me a river.
Still no discussion about the upside from these levels, or about the future potential of the business considering various pricing and market forecasts…. Just pessimistic generalisations like “they’ll never get funding” etc etc, “supported” (lol) by gross exaggerations of “failure” and focus on current market conditions.
Plenty of big calls of late….. looking forward to revisiting them in due course, as the market shifts and the company advances its progress.
imo anyone claiming there has not been very significant de-risking between the two snapshots listed above, is delusional or being absolutely disingenuous.
Delays, issues, hiccups? Sure! Plenty! DYOR and factor them into your investment thesis. You don’t have a Time Machine and if you think emotions ever helped anyone in this game… then good luck to you!
Does anyone think the market waves simply “stop” at this level? Lmfao
Only time will tell whether the company can progress with the expansion via a funding deal of some sort.
Some wait patiently (as frustrating as that can be), objectively recognising the significant de-risking that has been achieved, others screech from the peanut gallery.
History repeats, over and over.
Seen it many times!
GLALTH the game is far from over despite the-sky-is-falling narrative.
(20min delay)