Two big reasons why lithium free fall may have more to go

ByCarl Capolingua

Tue 20 Aug 24, 9:30am (AEST)

KEY POINTS

Lithium prices have taken a sharp turn lower in recent weeks, with several key markets hitting two and a half year lows
Two separate broker notes help explain the recent weakness, but also paint a bleak picture for an imminent bounce...


The price of lithium carbonate in China, generally considered the lowest common denominator of lithium minerals prices, is down 33% since its April peak and 87% from its all-time peak in October 2022...



The general consensus among the major brokers and research houses is that the problem remains a wall of supply from Australian, Chinese, South American and African producers – who continue to progress several major ramp-ups despite lower prices – against a backdrop of slowing demand from the EV sector...

Chinese EV sales are being negatively impacted outside of China due to lower global EV adoption, increasing competition from internal combustion engine (ICE) manufacturers, and rising protectionism fears...Chinese EV manufacturers have enjoyed substantial government subsidies and aid over the last decade, and this has left several overseas markets for Chinese EVs mulling strategies to protect their own EV manufacturers.

Chinese EV manufacturers are resorting to “aggressive channel-stuffing”, says Morgan Stanley, which the broker believes “could lead to an increase in inventories and a slower start to 3Q sales." As a result, the broker's China Autos team suggest "downside risks to China EV sales moving forward.”