I agree the best parameters in a DCF should probably be based upon an analysis of historic data, but I don't agree that its hard stuff.
As I've already posted previously, this analysis has already been done for us - there is published research analysing a truly enormous datasets, such as https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6409418/ which analysed >185,000 drug phase transitions, including orphan drugs. From this the average success rate of Ph 3 for an orphan drug was found to be 66% (if you exclude oncology which has an unusually low success rate).
This means, based upon historical averages, its more likely than not that NNZ-2591 will be approved for both PMS & PHS.
As I've argued previously, based upon the results we've seen for NNZ-2591 (low side-effect profile, improvements across a majority of participants and high statistical significance) NNZ-2591 appears to be better than the average drug.
This suggests to me the likelihood of success in Ph 3 for PMS & PHS will be considerably higher than the 66% historical average.
Additionally, the fact that NNZ-2591 has been successful in 3 independent trials also strengthens the case enormously. A good result in a small Phase 2 study could be well be just good luck - a statistical anomaly - you have to be careful not to extrapolate the results of a small short term trial too far. However, if you're run three independent trials and got similar positive results in all this greatly reduces the chances the result was a 'fluke'. It hugely strengthens your conviction the measured drug effects are real and likely to be replicated in a larger trial.
I think its hard to overemphasise how Neuren's achievement of successful results for the same drug in 3 completely separate trials is. Even if the general public don't appreciate this, I can guarantee the statisticians employed at large Pharma doing their business modelling will understand this - and it will have a major effect on their risk modelling (in the upwards directly).
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- NEU
- The Whens and Whys of Top Biotech M&A Deals
NEU
neuren pharmaceuticals limited
Add to My Watchlist
2.29%
!
$14.51

The Whens and Whys of Top Biotech M&A Deals, page-55
Featured News
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
|
|||||
Last
$14.51 |
Change
0.325(2.29%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.806B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$14.36 | $14.75 | $14.36 | $7.070M | 484.7K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
20 | 910 | $14.50 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$14.51 | 729 | 12 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
15 | 535 | 14.500 |
6 | 334 | 14.490 |
12 | 986 | 14.480 |
6 | 1211 | 14.470 |
6 | 1355 | 14.460 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
14.510 | 928 | 14 |
14.520 | 470 | 12 |
14.530 | 793 | 8 |
14.540 | 1266 | 7 |
14.550 | 1563 | 7 |
Last trade - 13.58pm 10/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
NEU (ASX) Chart |