AGE WEEKLY REPORT, page-276

Weekly Review U Stocks - 23rd Aug 2024

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for last year - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
.

.

Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.

.,
.
There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contains 33 stocks.
.
.

How are we going in 2024 - General Market

• SP 500 is now on its way to make another all time high this week, barring anything dramatic like a black swan event. It dropped close to 10% from its all time high, ticked the box for many, and now seems to have no guilt in continuing in its merry way to the top. Finished week at 5634, up around 1.5% from last week 5554. All time high at 5669 is now nearly there.
• Volatility Index VIX is at 15.86, last week at 14.80, so slight increase but around 15 is still very bullish. VIX too has done its round to 65, got the tick and looks like ready to serve the bulls again. It was looking vulnerable couple of days back, but only slightly, no threat.
• Sentiment Indicator at 53 - Neutral - 1 week back on 35 Fear, so going in right direction too
• Bitcoin too has joined the party. It too went below 50k, got the tick and is now eyeing another all time high in mid 70ks in near future. Couple of weeks it was hovering around 60k. But as I wrote it look like normal churn before next leg, and its more looking like that now.
• Russell 2000 was the start performer of the week. We want this to be strongest, for risk assets, commodities, resources, small-caps, etc. It gained around 3.5% for the week. Looks like some who want this rotation from tech etc to other sectors, it may have started, but has a long way to go to make up for all the losses. It finished at 2218, from 2141 of last week.
• Yields slightly down from last week, hovering around 3.8, last week 3.9 - so right direction.
• Dollar Index too going like Yields, falling, in right direction
• Gold, Silver on the rise again, Oil - had fallen but trying to recover now
• Powell on Jackson Hole was dovish. I remember in 2022 when stocks were massacred, Powell was so hawkish in Jackson Hole. How tides have turned. Rate cuts are on the way. Stock market is going up. Time for many to make gains or recoup their losses - lets hope it plays out that way. Time to take risks, rather be risk-averse.
• So overall markets looking like regaining its loss of 10% - last week I wrote - "in a slightly positive frame this week". This week - very positive

.
.
What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:

• SP 500 may try to get to another all time high soon, very likely next week, who knows on Monday itself. So long as 5119 holds, the upward trend is intact.
• Russell 2000 is trying to recover, we need some big weekly jumps over here, 5%+. Took some good steps this week, 3.5%, but need more
• Economic data - No major data this week, so technicals and sentiment may drive markets
• Uranium Sector overview - I have been writing for couple of months, May end top, July end bottom, September end top. CCJ to reverse from here. I was writing that 39/40 is critical level, and a move in either direction may provide medium term direction. On Friday it has started a move, reached 43.49, finished at 42.61. I have also been writing till it crosses 45 and stays above that, reversal will not be confirmed. So we still don't have a confirmation. But odds that 35 may have been the bottom for this phase has increased. My play of bottoming here and topping Sep end/Oct begin is still intact. I have bought around 85% of what I had wanted to buy, 40% 2 weeks back, another 40% 1 week back, another 5% this week. If its looking all right this week then I may buy the rest. Spot price also did a scare/drama, dipped below psychological number of 80, but recovered on Friday, also on Kaz news, currently at 82.40, back in safe zone. So my theory is still in play, but anything can happen, so please dyor. ASX U stocks had a big drop this week, but could all change next week, as more people start believing we may have bottomed, we may do new highs within next couple of months.
• Lithium Sector overview - A very odd week, but I will still say that it was positive. There are mixed signals. Positive part - US and ASX Li stocks are on the ascendancy. Spot price is on the up. ALB is close to 30% up from its lows - that is one of the best results in a long time. We have 2 green weeks in my 90 stocks that I track after a while, before that 4 weeks of red. So everything to like and feel that we may have bottomed or are bottoming here. But there is one curious play. China Li, especially Ganfeng. Its a big stock. A market leader. Its is still playing like last several months. This week again it made fresh 52 week lows, finished the week on the lowest number in last 52 weekly finish/daily finish. So it is not joining the party, yet. I believe, that this divergence cannot stay. Just based on logic. If sector has to go up, bottom, reverse, then major players have to participate. So I feel either Ganfeng has to rise or ALB has to fall - which will blink? I don't know, but lets hope Ganfeng comes around and ALB is in three figures shortly - 106 above will be very positive.
• REE Sector overview - REE stocks having a similar play like Li sector. Fort 5 weeks, REE stocks on average were in red. Last week we got first green after long time. This week another big green, so very positive. WA1 is back it looks, LYC doing well, so many others like BRE/MEI/ENR who may be waiting for direction, could possibly start making a move this week. A big weekly rise of 8% across 30 REE stocks I track gives lot of hope for medium term. .

.
.
Personally:
This week for me similar to last 2 weeks. I had bought 80% of my U stocks I wanted to buy before this week, picked up a few more, now at 85%. Rest I want to buy when the price goes up, otherwise I want to keep some ammo if prices do fall. Li/REE I have not started to buy. I am getting signals of bottoming/reversal, but U sector signals are more advanced at this stage, its providing me more confidence that it may have bottomed. I know I will never pick bottom, so want to see some confirmation of trend reversal. Hopefully soon. U sector is also playing to my theory which I have been writing every week for last 3 months, so my confidence is better there. But that's just me, my bias, for all practical purposes the reverse may happen, U stocks stay here and others go on a big ride, but I will catch it, maybe miss the initial part. This week U stocks were in consolidation. Next week I expect first moves. It will not go in a straight line. We don't have confirmation of reversal yet. So it might be like 2 steps forward, 1 step back, but lets. Better to follow price action than assume. U stocks I am playing (LOT/AGE/CXU/EL8/BMN/BOE/DYL/PDN/SLX/AEE). I like to spread, in case one or two doesn't work. Its individual choice, sometimes one stock may give biggest rise. I try to reduce risk of specific stocks not doing well. Besides Uranium, I am playing very cautiously, not playing Li/REE sector blindly at this stage. Just a few stocks here and there. Other plays in health stocks, with some splattering across Gold and Oil/gas - most of these I play standard spreading the money, so don't usually write there, but currently I have got around 10 stocks in these sector I am playing there. Main health stocks - DXB/BOT/PYC, Gold - PNR - I have been writing about them for several months now.
.
.
Stock/Sector specific Info:

• This week AGE continued to play mostly 3.8/4.6 zone. I felt it was just playing the U macro - behaviour similar to other U stocks, volume moderate, nothing unusual in the play.
• From a weekly perspective moved from 4.2 to 3.8. Last week it moved from 3.7 to 4.2 - so nearly back where it was 2 weeks back, consolidating, and as expected.
• 
  
• No ASX U stocks that I track did a 52 week high this week, again this week. We seem to be in consolidation zone now, but watch out for next couple of months if my theory plays out.
• U stocks down 33% for the year, so a lot of ground to cover back, drop of nearly 70% from January highs.
• This week average loss was 4% across 33 U stocks that I track. Previous week was 8% up, but 4 consecutive weeks before that in red.
• In May I had written I had exited most of my stocks at average 6.2. Last week I wrote I had bought for last 2 weeks, my average 3.65, did not buy more this week. But till I get confirmation, I will play with soft hands and exit on weakness
• U future is now at 82.40, last week at 81.25, - so a small gain and no real movement. But it did drop below 80, a psychological number, but thankfully recovered quickly on Friday. That may have been the bottom, but we wait for confirmation.
• On Friday US U were in big green, really big green. General markets still were in green. Kaz results gave a big push to the sector. So we could see a big push on Monday. But as I have written, we won't go in a straight line I feel, but chances are a big gain (15/20%) then small drop (5/10%), and we continue to take one step at a time. That is my play, I could be wrong though. I will try to call the ups and downs in my writings, but that will be based on a hunch only. Its for those who want to do short-term trades. In a bull market, hold and play may work as well if not better. I like to trade so I will give it a go with around 30% of my holding, mainly because I like trading, picking top/bottom, more for fun. Sometimes I win too.
• 
  

.
.
Here is the Figures for the Week:
.
.