The price is only where it is because of the short sellers, and I understand the short sellers quite well. Their arguments don't hold up well especially as things are starting to shift.
Their view is quite focused on the futures pricing, however all analysts believe that spodumene and carbonate pricing will be up in 2025, so the short sellers are actually ultimately defeated by their own logic. Notwithstanding this, there will be a lag when lithium price is correcting thus pushing it to even higher limits, (production takes time to commission again after being in care and maintenance).
I would not want to be a short seller in LTR right now, because the share price has been manipulated so low it has to potentially to rocket upwards as institutions close their short positions and begin to buy. In fact, I remember seeing LTR in a lot of my clients superannuation funds when I was practicing as an accountant so I know this has the potential to be re-accumulated quite quickly.
Further, the agreements that LTR has with its off-take partners are long-term and for high quality product so I do expect the pricing mechanisms to be good, after all the off take partners such as Tesla acquired their nickel from the likes of BHP. LTR is up there as a producer and strong pricing will follow, especially as the company matures into production and the commodity prices recover as every analyst expects. Short sellers may have to learn the hard way when they are forced to buy back the shares!
Regardless, even if I'm wrong in the short-term (which I doubt), I will simply accumulate more and win in the long-run... Can't say the same for the short sellers... It's obvious where LTR will be from 2025-2030.
This is my opinion, not financial advice.
Cheers,
LTR Price at posting:
79.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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