geelong pond approval?, page-18

The sell down has to be primarily due to 1) No AGM upside surprise. 2) Director stepping down.

It is very difficult to keep focus on the primary game with people selling off. Yet our game is still the same. Council approval pending- hopeful of Dec then we have 2-3 weeks of placing in remaining pipes. Hopefully no stopping for XMAS and we all done by New year.

It had been communicated to me that pipes where all ready to go. Yet it was obviously in the context of the sub contractors and piping all available awaiting for council go ahead.

So we are now looking at a Jan 2011 completion to Plant 1. Then the pending Alcoa OS expansion deal I suspect. I suspect this is a 6 week delay and the market is punishing accordingly.

Many will be asking if $1.1 or lower maybe a great opportunity to accummulate. If all looks good with council approval for Dec and completion in Jan then the Alcoa deal stitched UP. I will personally be accummulating and buying into current fear.

Lets face it all the upside is still there, only now we have a minor delay that is always expected.

In terms of the Director stepping down he is still very much involved. We all say Ohhh yes yes health reasons... yet it is stated he is involved and remains a supplier. Obviously his bigger bucks in is supplying and remaining a contractor. Plus he can buy and sell as he wishes without any pressure.

I do however think that we may have some pressure in the ST... yet who is prepared to take cash out now when the prospect of many OS expansion deals can pop up as an ANN at any time. Not me... we still have over $1 value for every plant that in the future. How much value will we attach to the Alcoa x40 production elsewhere in the world...currently all worldwide expasion is priced at 50c or so IMO. 60-65c for plant 1 income. Both should be a lot higher IMO.

Yet will go from Buy to LT Buy... until the council approval is done I persoanlly feel serious upside will come after Plant 1 is fully commissioned and the upgrade operational. Then we will see the Alcoa deal and others IMO- DYOR.

As I have speculated for many months- Alcoa deal is stitched up confidentially and conditional to Plant 1 completion and successful operation.

Is 60c value for Plant 1 and 60c value for OS expansion currently fair? Well market currently saying no on the downside... great buying at certain levels IMO.

I doubt the council will have any issues and doubt the OS expansion will be held up due to one tiny council. Yet a little annoying that the council takes so long and stopping us earning 8.6M pa right now. As fair value on this alone is 1.2... nervous investors may bail now yet regret greatly in a month or 2....IMO.

Good luck LT holder- holding strong with so much upside potential is very hard to look past. Dispite recent events in delays and Director stepping down. Nothing is obsolutely smooth...we all wish for Plant 1 income now, Alcoa deal NOW, everything NOW yet it rarely happens that way.

Our time will come again.

Cheers JAY