Russia Ukraine war, page-234689

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Lt Ripley

7,411 Posts.

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28/08/24

17:55

Post #: 75420423
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Originally posted by tangs ↑

let's talk russ economy ......

where is it at ?

How does it compare with the USSR before USSR collapse ?
The short answer to the last is .....much much better at the start of the war economically than the soviets .....BUT .....the War in Ukraine much much much more financially destructive to russia than the Afghanistan war ever was .

positives
1.Elvira Nabiulina - she's just damned good .....the one good leader in russia .
2.the sovereign wealth fund - analogous financially to the weapons stockpiles russia had built up - currently about $140 bill
3.China and India still buying oil and OP not too bad .....(not a great positive ...more so-so but the revenue stream likely better than in Soviet times !)

negatives
1. cost of war - $140 bill was budgeted ....one more year and wealth fund will be used up
2. weak rouble , high inflation , 18% official interest rates
3. savings being made by completeely ignoring domestic needs cannot go on forever without catastrophic infrasturcture collapses ....already seen some
4. dependance on western technology - sanctions - and where possible , the cost of avoiding sanctions

I suspect the cost of war much higher - many things not budgeted for will be accounted for under different departments to defence .....for instance , two nights back - estimnated cost of the missiles used $1.2 bill in a single night ...next night maybe not a lot less .
The higher than expected cost of soldiers because no-one wants to sign up .

foolish people here pretend russia can keep on doing this indefintiely ....they may point out even worse for Ukraine - AND IT IS - except the west is underwriting that ....no-one underwrites russia

russia has one more year financed by their sov wealth fund ....after that , they'll need countries to cover their debt .....or there WILL be russ financial collapse

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Can you do the Ukrainian economy analysis pre and post the 2014 coup? You will be surprised with the results.
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