RED 0.00% 34.5¢ red 5 limited

Ann: FY24 Financial Results and FY25 Outlook, page-18

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  1. 1,047 Posts.
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    Mid point Sales 410,000 ounces
    Average Sale price at current price $3,700 @ 60% Unhedged 40% hedged at $2,800 is $3,450
    Mid Point costs $2,450
    Operating Cash Flow of $410 million
    Capex etc $205 million
    Net Cash flow for year of $205 million or just over $50 million cash per quarter.

    Long story short the capex at Mt Monger is the only real surprise $56 million is quite hefty but as stated this an investment that will yield four years of base load for Mt Monger.

    What's disappointing is that this is just guidance for one year. Seriously if this company wants to be rerated it needs to put longer guidance out. Showing the yield at Mt Monger in the years following FY25 would help calm the nerves about the $56 million capex.

    The Board need to go longer range.

    I am happy with the KOTH guidance - no surprises and low capex which is pleasing. The Hedges suck but given the mine has a life of over ten years its a short term albeit expensive problem. The KOTH mine underpins a long life for the company.

    Deflector off a bit but to be expected. Need greater visibility on that going forward. We don't need any nasty surprises on that front. The company should talk more about Rothsay and what it can or can't offer as a supplement to Deflector.

    Tonkin should be sacked over Sugar Zone. A second year it is being idled but more capex to be spent. Why? The gold price is almost $1,000 an ounce higher than what it was when they bought it. Not good enough. If you can't get the gold out of the ground when the price is $3,700 when can you?

    RED (Vault) is a hold from me. Company still punching out $200 million with an EV of less than $2 billion. Not a great forward guidance but I would argue the insiders knew about this 2 months ago hence the sell down so downside below 35 cents would start to become decent value notwithstanding market perception around Tonkin and Board.

    GLTA/IMHO
    Last edited by Samscout: 29/08/24
 
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