BOT - Anything but charting, page-9922

@linp
And let's not overlook how super-conservative both are concerning market penetration!

Euroz Hartleys (47c) is based on BOT only capturing 1% of the ~3.7m patients seekingtreatment and 0.3% of the other ~6.3m patients not, within a decade, assuming an average 12 scripts per patient, or if more conservatively put, 2% and 0.6% assuming 6scripts. This equates to ~673k peak Sofdra scripts, or US$474m peak sales by FY34. BOT's Japanese partner, Kaken, has sold ~350k units of Sofpironium Bromidein the last 12 months alone. And I very much doubt Kaken had a $75m marketing war chest! EH do note that increasing peak digital penetration of the ~6.3m patients to 1% (from 0.3% modelled) and assuming12 scripts per patients, increases their valuation to $0.76!

Evans & Partners (55c) is based on FY2026 of only $105m in sales. That's only about 200k scripts at $500. That's only 16k people getting 12 scripts - less than 0.5% penetration of the 3.7m patients seeking treatment, alone.

Both are super, super-conservative calls on market penetration. Have I mentioned a $75m marketing war chest!