Thanks Marcus and an interesting perspective.
On the block trade idea, see my post above:
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/74182298/singleTo update that on the current market price (!) of 3.3c, the instos would want a 30% discount for scale and risk 2.3c, rediscount for forced seller urgency, cos they can, 1.9c. No trade.
I would characterise the Aus/China relationship as like a water polo match: honest rivalry above water for the public while both are violently kicking each other underwater. (Shhhhh!)
China knows very well the West is determined to break their REE monopoly. Australia's meticulous preparations to oblige divestment under long-standing Australian law (1975) cannot be stopped. Nor would they seek to protect with diplomacy a commercial position of $20m.
You and I don't know how low it will go. It will be below today's price.
34 trading days remain.
Ash
(20min delay)